Sunday, December 20, 2009

India: Tackling recent surge in inflation

We are witnessing a surge in inflation (in India) and this time the soaring numbers are reflecting the CPI. It would be interesting to see how the government tackles the situation.
The inflation figures are soaring due to rise in prices of food items, primarily potato (136%), pulses (40%), onion (15.4%) and wheat (14%). Supply side constraint has been sighted as the primary reason behind this recent surge. It’s true keeping in mind the draughts and floods that we have faced this year. To add to this, we have a completely unregulated part of supply chain between farmers and retailers where the final mark up at which the consumers pay can go over 500%!
You will get plethora of information describing the current situation on the internet. I wanted to discuss what lies ahead. We now have two primary challenges
1.       Supply side constraints
2.       Artificial price hike due to unreasonable mark-ups and hoarding
And a pseudo challenge of increased money supply (I will explain later why I call it pseudo challenge). 


Thursday, November 12, 2009

Challenges in front of Indian Infrastructure Sector

India infrastructure: big ambitions, big potential, big money, little happening. This is what I feel, sums up, what's happening in the Indian infrastructure sector. Government's extended enthusiasm about the sector hasn't been able to get the big infrastructure projects moving. There are lot of PPP projects coming up but what's going wrong? Many Infrastructure and Power shares are seeing constant ups and downs in the market. What is keeping the big money away? Surely the private investor is upbeat on the sector and so is Indian mutual fund. But the big money from western FIIs and Pension funds doesn't seem to have embraced the sector gladly.

I believe that there are few sore issues which needs to be taken care of so that the Indian infrastructure sector can be put on fast track asap.

Monday, November 9, 2009

Mobile Marketing: Potential or Pain?

Mobile advertising has off late gathered lot of intellectual discussion. Some see it as a great potential and others treat it as a pain in the a***. Mobile advertising today, as I know, mainly comes in the form of SMS (Text Message/Multimedia Message). I am keeping the advts. which a user sees while browsing internet through his mobile phone separate from this.  A quick look at Wikipedia suggests that worldwide, over 90% of mobile marketing is done through SMS.

I personally feel that mobile advertising has one of the biggest nuisance value as compared to other conventional mode of advertising. I would request readers to pour in their views and correct my opinion.

Well, in case of TV advt. I switch on my TV to watch my favourite show and attached with it comes few advt. which I see during the breaks. Thus, I don't switch on my TV to watch Advertisements!
I pick up my favourite news paper to read the latest news/articles/opinions and while browsing through the pages I get to see some advertisements. Again, I didn't pick the newspapers to check the advertisements!
Let's take the case of web advertising as well, and there also I go to my favourite website to browse it and I see few ads while browsing through my favourite website. Thus, the ads come with my favourite website which has some helpful content for me. I didn't go on internet to see ads.
You can apply a similar logic for hoardings, banners, etc which you see on your way. You usually don't go somewhere to check the hoardings or banners.

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Role of Fiscal and Monetary policy: American context (Part 2)

Welcome to part 2. (Click here to read the first part) I will begin this part with the modern panacea for recession. Loosen monetary policy, let your currency depreciate boost your export and plough back out of recession.
This looks efficient as well as effective in most cases. Although the sanity of increasing liquidity in the market was not suggested to the Asian tigers or the Argentinean government during the crisis, still it is now a well established fact to do so in order to fight recession. However, it might not give its usual results when we look at America.
The USA is a net importer with huge trade deficit and USD is the global trade currency. Many other countries are dependent hugely on trade with the USA and also dependent on the value of USD. This has propelled most of the developing countries to maintain the value of their domestic currency against dollar to keep them competitive in the export market and also to prevent losing the value of their forex reserves. These nations which include the likes of China, Russia and India, have chosen domestic inflation over stronger local currency (Click here to better understand this phenomenon). Another factor which plays a role in keeping the dollar strong against other currency is that US lies in the centre of today’s mono polar world. Thus no major economy across the world stays untouched from US recessions. You can see on the graph how Euro area follows US GDP growth rate.

Role of Fiscal and Monetary policy: American context (Part 1)

Hi friends,
I started off with the aim of exploring recessionary economics. I wanted to find out the different ways in which a recession is triggered and steps which can lead a nation out of it. But as I spent more time on it, the length and complexity of the scenarios to be considered kept increasing. I wanted to present a simple model which can explain different kinds of recession and give a clear picture of the phenomena which everybody can understand. But as I said earlier it’s now taking too much time. Let’s see when I complete it, if I complete it at all.
Right now I will give a quick over view of the role of fiscal and monetary policy and understand them in today’s context. I will also try to explore how they work in the American economic system.
We typically have two kinds of tools to bring changes in the economic condition of a country: fiscal policy and monetary policy. We use an expansionary fiscal/monetary policy to plough out of recession. Here is how they work and the basic difference between them.
Fiscal policy focuses on controlling the government spending in order to accelerate or retard economic growth. During recession, an expansionary fiscal policy is used which aims at increasing government spending to directly increase investment, employment and thus domestic demand. Expansionary fiscal policy is either financed through borrowing or tax increase.
Monetary policy aims at controlling the liquidity in the market to spur up or slow down the economy. It is implemented primarily through interest rate control (though there are other ways as well). Usually the central bank is responsible for fixing the interest rate. During recession, an expansionary monetary policy is implemented (easy money) which aims to bring down interest rate or make money cheaper. It is then expected that with cheaper money, the private sector will increase production, which will increase employment and then demand.
The effectiveness of the above tools depends a lot upon the source which triggered the recession, severity of the recession, objectives which the government/central bank is looking to achieve (like exchange rate stability, price stability, et al), financing options, how soon the results are desired, etc. Both got a validation and initial acceptance after the great depression. However, while recovery from the depression of 1933 saw the use of fiscal stimulus, the world today is seeing more of monetary policy being used to fight slumps in economy. There are various reasons for this

Sunday, September 6, 2009

Stocks, Gold or Treasuries?

Hey frns... I see this question popping up quite a bit more frequently now as compared to couple of months back. Perhpas the liquidity boost given by central banks have started to reach the pockets of individuals.

Well I believe that the excess liquidity in the market will surely ensure low returns from treasuries.


How about gold and stocks... excess liquidty can chase either of the two...

Below is my take on the situation...

We are still not out of the recession... at this unpredictable juncture, a greater affinity to gold is more likely. Gold has always been a safer bet, a reliable bet and should attract the liquidity when the confidence in the market is still far from upbeat. Also, greater investment in gold will act as a hedge against inflation and thus would be a desirable outcome for central banks as well. Thus, during our journey up the economic curve as we move out of recession, gold should get higher proportion of investment. However, as the haze clears up and the economy looks upbeat, stocks would lead the race. As the confidence in the business returns, stocks will start outperforming gold.

I am sorry for this unstructured and badly written post but I hope you would be able to make some sense out of it.
Just to summarise:
1. I won't put my money on treasuries for now.
2. Gold will outperform stocks now. It will remain the same for approx 5-6 months in Western markets. In India, the period should be shorter to about 3-4 months.
3. Stocks take the lead perhaps arnd 6-8 months down the line in Western market. Indian market would start seeing better returns on stock compared to gold slightly earlier.
For people trading in Gold, it would be a good idea to invest in stocks in order to hedge against the fall in gold prices which shoud come as we start seeing a steady rise in stock prices. This, I believe is the clue. Yes, "steady" is a very vague term and evrybody will have a different definition for it. However, keeping this fact in mind can help you to minimize any loss or build upon your profits as the investment shifts from a safer gold to a higher return stocks...

Hey pls do leave a comment if you think that my posts are not structured, not worded properly or you think that they don't properly explain the issues. I will try to improve them. I usually write them in a hurry and I end up with a not very smooth and lucid writeup.

Monday, August 24, 2009

American recession fuelling domestic inflation?

American economy is influencing the world economy as never before and particularly the Asian developing nations which are increasingly becoming dependent on GDP growth fuelled by $ based trading. The present American recession pushed the US interest rate down to almost zero. However, the crisis didn't require similar cut back in interest rates for other economies. Though we saw strong measures to increase liquidity in developing nations. Why were the interest rates cut down so much and increased liquidity was ensured through various means. Why did it all happen and why in this large proportion? Was it only to fight liquidity crunch in the domestic market of developing nations? No, the reasons are not so simple. There was another very important factor playing a role. "Developing nations dependence on Dollar based world trade".

As lowering interest rates in US devalued the dollar, developing countries like India had to follow suite. Developing nations had to make a choice between stable exchange rate and domestic inflation. Most of the nations chose to maintain their currency against dollar rather than to maintain a stable domestic inflation rate. In doing so, almost every developing nation increased the flow of domestic currency in the local market, but this was done not only to fight credit crunch but to match the falling dollar as well. The extra bit of effort made to maintain the value of dollar cost the countries a recent surge in inflation.

Well, free market economy is all about choices. The developing economies chose to defend dollar to maintain their cost advantage but in the process stoked inflation which will anyways hurt export. The question is which would have hurt more? A weaker dollar or domestic inflation?

Please write in your views.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

What to blame for the present economic crisis?

It's an interesting question, specially because everybdy wants an answer and has an answer as well to this query. I would not put the blame on Financial innovation or American politics or Greed or Real estate crisis, etc etc... What we receive is often a result of what we choose, and we have chosen to follow a "similar to" free market economy model. Not a wrong choice but surely it comes with an inherent characteristic named *swing* which is responsible for 'almost cyclical' booms and bursts in the economy. Free market economy, though gives space to greed, profit motives, financial innovation, political adventurism, etc etc, still manages to provide an economic model which is good enough to be followed by the majority of the world. For me, the only downturn is the *swing* which needs to be controlled through appropriate policies. The swing needs to be attenuated through regulatory measures.

With the choice we have made, everything else which we have blamed so far is inevitable. Political adventurism, greed, booms, bursts, et al, have happened in past and will keep happening without control. The only controllable part is regulation which we failed to provide and thus should bear the blame for the crisis.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Check out these Economist ads!

Inquisitive?
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Tuesday, June 23, 2009

What do you think are the top 6 issues concerning India?

This is what I view as the top 6 issues concerning our nation(India) today. I want to base my opinion on some of the basic tenete on which i believe a healthy and progressive nation is based. These fundamental blocks for me are (in no particular order)
1. Free and Liberated minds
2. Healthy citizens
3. Leadership and vision to lead the nation
4. Justice to all
5. Peace and Harmony
6. Robust economy governed by fair and inclusive system

Keeping the above in mind, I would suggest the following issues which needs to tackled with urgency.

1. Education.
1.1 Need for bigger, better and more number of par excellence institutes of higher learning for science, commerce as well as arts.
1.2 Need Quality primary education for all

2. Health. Need Better health and sanitation facilities. Interestingly over 30% of doctors in the USA are Indians while we all know the plight of health in India!

3. Leadership. There is big void of strong leadership and a visionary in the political arena. In fact I wonder who in the long history of indian civilization could have played the role of such a leader. What's your opinion on this? Vallabh Bhai Patel? Ashoka? What kinda leader do you want to have for your country? Opinons welcome...

4. Courts. We need higher number of courts with a stronger machinery to monitor court proceedings. We have nearly 30 million cases pending in our courts! Justice is absolutely fundamental for the well being of citizens and nation.

5. Terrorism. Well I don't know how to deal with core fanatics who irrespctive of being educated or not, having a family or not, having a job or not, et al... behave in certain unacceptable ways. But many of their followers (who make d majority of the number) are not like them. But still they have enough "time" to get into other people's business rather than minding their own. Perhaps inclusive growth is one small step to styme the growth of such followers at least.

6. Tax System. Tax system is just one among many systems which plays a major role in the way our economy works. Our tax system is still incapabale of bringing tax evading companies/people to books. We lose billions of rupees every year because of it, thus creating a handicapped gov. with a burden of consistent budget deficit. Fixing the tax system can be the key to many other lingering issues which the gov. can't handle due to lack of resources. Overhaul and reforms in this field has to be a part of bigger effort to enlist citizens, companies (listed, unlisted, SME, etc, etc)... We need to bring every person (social security no.) , every transaction, every biz, to books at which we r way behind. Even small SMEs save crores of rupees every year by evading taxes! This is an aspect which has never been given enough importance. But we need to, sooner than later.

Your thoughts welcome... Pls write what in your opinion r the top issues being faced by India...

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Problems to think about...

1. Why do we see so many religion based communal riots but not as many caste based riots?

2. Why are we repeatedly getting a hung parliament? 
     Is "hung parliament" a problem? Is there a defect in our democratic system?
If yes, then what is the core issue and how can we correct it? 
If no, then how can a stable government be formed in a hung parliament?
Are such outcomes healthy for a democracy to thrive or is it a symptom of a faulty system? If its is a healthy outcome then how to make a stable gov. while still reaping the benefits of a true democracy albeit with a divided mandate.

3. Is Democracy or the "rule of majority" the best system possible?
.
.
.
Your comments invited...

Procurement of computer peripherals: Leveraging long term contracts

Long term contracts are often used to negotiate cheaper rates from suppliers. Long term contracts can be leveraged effectively but it assumes that the price of commodity/service to be procured will go up or atleast maintain the current value as time progresses. Long term contracts can't be of too much help if the commodity/service price is likely to go down with time. One typical example of such a commodity is computer peripherals which usually show steep fall in prices with time, specially after a period of say 8-12 months after launch. 

In such a situation how should the bidders be asked to quote? It's is almost impossible for even suppliers to intelligently predict the prices of such items 6 months or an year down the line. Under such cirumstances what price should a supplier quote for the items? 

Thus we see that asking bidders to quote prices for a long term contract may not be the best option as nobody has enough knowledge of how the prices are going to behave after say 6 to 8 months or an year. Computer peripherals show steep decline after certain period which typicalls depends on the product and the kind of innovation we are seeing in that product line. If we ask suppliers to quote their prices they will base their quotation on present prices which might be much higher than what the prices will be 1 year later. Then how to leverage a long term contract in such a case?

What should then we ask for, from bidders, if not prices? How about asking them to submit the percentage discount on MRP (Maximum Retail Price) that they want to offer for a long term contract (where MRP keeps changing with time). A further extension can be to link the discpunt relative to an index for the good/material or its cost driver. I believe that suppliers are better positioned to quote a discount (and thus keeping in mind a profit margin) that they can offer rather than an actual price which will be fixed over the period of contract. 
We can then compare bidders on the value of discount quoted.

How to Monitor Revenue being earned at Far Away Kiosks?

There are many public/private initiatives where performance has to be monitored in far flung areas which are difficult to approach let alone monitor. We faced a similar situation in one of the places where I was working. Our project was to successfully run over 2000 ICT enabled kiosks in rural areas of Himachal Pradesh. These kiosks were supposed to be run by local level entrepreneurs and we were responsible for setting up the infrastructure and making various services available at the kiosk. The kiosks were set up in one of the most inaccessible terrains of Himalayas and of course had its own set of difficulties. Kiosks were there to disseminate different kind of G2C as well as B2C services to their respective panchayat (a collection of around 6 villages) population.  Thus each panchayat was supposed to have one such kiosk.

Now let's understand what exactly were we trying to monitor. We wanted to monitor 
1. What kind of services are being used in each panchayat. 
2. How much is the kiosk operator earning from each service. 
Services included printing, photocopy, Internet access, fax, online booking of railway/bus/airline tickets, e-education, Gov. forms (like birth/death certificate, land records, etc.), et al.  Some of these services were provided completely online through a portal provided by us and there were appropriate provisions to monitor their usage. However, many other facilities like printing, photocopy, fax, scanning, selling of gov. forms, etc were few of the services which were extremely difficult to monitor. We could have never found out how much is the operator earning through these services and they incidentally were supposed to be the most popular services. 

Now how can we measure the usage of such services as accurately as possible to gauge the actual earnings from each kiosk? Of course here is an assumption that the operators will understate their earnings and their are plethora of reasons to support that but I will not go into details discussing them in this post.

Well, to take care of the revenue earned through printing, photocopy, scanning, internet access, et al can be monitored through technology. For example, there are Photocopy/Printing machines available which keeps a count of number of printed/photocopied pages, etc. But the problems were
1. Who will go to each centre to note down the readings? Even if machines are intelligent enough to automatically mail the readings online, still the function can be easily manipulated or better put the machine offline while using it. 
2. These machines were way over our budget.

So what else can we do? Install cameras and monitor what is happening in each kiosk? Nope, surely an impractical idea.
This is the plan I proposed. Well not 100% secure but it uses a combination of incentives and punishments to get as close as possible to our goal. 
We can use two approaches in tandem.
1. We know that each kiosk has a different set of population to cater to and not all kiosks can earn similar revenue. We planned to divide all the panchyats on the basis of per capita income and population. Thus in a way we tried to measure the earning potential of each kiosk. Based on this data we made multiple categories and grouped together kiosks with similar earning potential. Our idea was to ask each kiosk operator to declare their earnings through each service themselves. Of course in the absence of any tangible monitoring system specially in case of print, photocopy, internet access, scan, selling of gov. forms, etc the operators were free to declare a deflated earning. So we brought in a clause of performance monitoring which stated that if an operator's declared monthly earning goes "below 20% of the average earning stated by the operators of his category" then he will be put in the warning zone and he will have to improve performance or be ready for eviction. In the absence of knowledge about the kiosks which fall in each category, its difficult to collude and declare revenue figures close to each other every month to evade falling in the eviction zone.
2. Introduce value cards for every customer of the kiosks and allow the card to be used across over 2000 kiosks all over the state. Inform every customer that every transaction done, no matter how small, adds up value points on their card and the points can be redeemed for cash, gifts, etc. This gives the incentive to the customer to feed in the information about each and every transaction against their value card. This will urge customers to ensure that all their spending in the kiosks are fed into the system by the operator. 

Thus a simultaneous implementation of the above options brought us close to estimating the true business being done by each kiosk.

Saturday, April 4, 2009

"New bill to curb traffic violations": Delhi Gov. Will it Work?

How to effectively implement traffic laws?

There is no denying the fact that violation of traffic laws is rampant across India. Well, Delhi has its own share of problems too and Delhi Government looks determined to put things right this time. To achieve the same, the newly elected Delhi Gov. has come up with the plan of hiking penalty charges for breaking traffic laws. For instance, the new Bill proposes to hike the fine for jumping red lights or not wearing seatbelt from Rs 100 to Rs 500. It is also proposed that parking in no-parking zones would invite a fine of Rs 1,500 instead of Rs 100 at present and so forth.

So how much is this going to help?

To find out if this is an effective solution we first need to understand the problem in detail. The problem is not only a lenient system which doesnt adequately penalize the violators but also an ineffective law enforcement agency (traffic police). No matter what happens on road, an offender knows that he can easily bribe the traffic police personnel and get away. The problem is that by hiking the penalty we are giving even more reasons to the offender to bribe the policeman rather than paying up the fine. For a fine of Rs. 100 an offender used to pay Rs 10-20 to get off, for a fine of Rs 500 he will now perhaps offer Rs 50-60. Surely the offender would try even harder to evade the hiked penalty. Under such circumstances how can we ensure proper implementation of traffic laws? Surely an increased penalty would also mean an increased bribe and a bigger dent in offender’s pocket and thus a bigger deterrent. However, this is surely not enough. It would never be able to bring desired results.

What incentive can we give an offender so that he prefers to get punished rather than bribing? I don’t see any particular way of doing that until and unless penalties are made too lenient which is surely unacceptable. Thus offenders will always find a way to escape fine by bribing policemen till policemen are ready to accept the gift.

Well, then can we influence the policemen to reject the illicit offers? Of course one option is to use technology to better monitor whatever is happening on the road as well with the policemen. However technology is expensive and its implementation will surely take time. So let’s forget technology for now. Well, just like we have heavy penalties for traffic rule violators, similarly we can have even heavier penalties for policemen found guilty of taking bribe. Also make sure that penalties are not only monetary but also career threatening for greater impact. But who will catch the corrupt policemen? Non-Gov. agencies can keep a vigil but still not an easy solution to implement. Another option can be to incentivise giving a ticket, say through sharing a portion of revenue earned through penalty with the police personnel. But this method can’t be overstretched as it might lure policemen into penalizing innocents for their own benefit.

So we have tried heavily penalizing offenders for breaking traffic laws and also traffic policemen for accepting bribe. However, this still doesn’t seem to be enough. Can we also introduce a system which ensures more cases to be booked rather than let off through bribes? I believe there lies another option in numbers and statistics. How about finding out the average number of violations, in say Delhi, each day? Can we break down the result in the type of violation, area in which committed and time during the day when rules were broken? There are numerous NGOs, NPOs and even Bhagidari which can collect this impartial data specially related to seatbelt, jumping red lights, rash driving, parking in no parking zones, use of mobile phone while driving, et al. It is for everybody’s benefit to regularly monitor this data. To begin with, we can take an average number of violations of each type, committed on each day in each area. Then we can ask the law enforcement agency to at least ensure that we bring to books at least 60% of the violations happening each day in the respective areas. This figure can be increased gradually. This will not only give invaluable regular inputs about traffic law violations happening across the city but also ensure that majority of them are brought to books rather than ending up in bribes.

Of course even the combination of all three options pointed out above can’t ensure a perfect system but it can surely be a step towards an improved system with lesser loopholes.


Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Deflation to last?

Deflation the way ahead?

Last year we have seen Inflation peaked but now with so much happening are we moving towards DEFLATION or may be an Econominc depression like 'The Great Depression" of 1929? 

As India's Inflation rate is currently at 0.44%, which is 32 year low, are we all set to move into negative inflation (Deflation) When there are reports about the Fiscal deficit going to touch 14%, growth at 4.6% etc. 

Thoughts welcome...             

Thanks to Siddarth Tyagi for raising this question... 

Well no points for guessing tht today in India we av both high supply n dwindling demand to contribute to lowering inflation or staring deflation... though i don't see it as a big concern bcos... 

1. We already had a very high and over inflated base in d boom time...
2. India is still growing at a healthy rate
3. Gov. is already out with big stimulus packages and the multi million $ election saga is about to start
4. Implementation of 6th pay commission

However, western economies will still take some time to recover and get back to their buying mode... so indian exporters r likely to bear the brunt for bit longer... but thr is an increasing liquidity in the indian market (as visible from the points 2, 3 & 4 above) which should encourage the producers to look towards domestic consumers... thus maintaining supply, as the demand is likely to increase in the domestic mkt... well this is something tht shud ideally happen... thus maintaining the supply near flat and slow, subsequent increase in demand wud av resulted in a gradual shift from deflation (for few mnths) to inflation (may b frm d last quarter of 2009)...

But i suspect tht it wudn't happen this way rather producers will b over cautious. We will soon see producers cutting down on supplies to counter deflationary trends... though demand is likely to soar with increasing liquidity in d domestic mkt... This situation will mean a quicker and steeper change in commodity prices and my 5 pence on India crossing the trough (lowest point of inflation curve) and getting into inflation right frm d month of July-Aug 09.

For more views click 
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